Abstract:

In 2022, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050, but that goal alone will not be enough to comply with the Paris Agreement. Recent research has highlighted the aviation emission’s effects on global warming, which extend beyond CO2 emissions to include short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as nitrogen oxides, black carbon, and contrail cirrus.

This report updates the ICCT’s Vision 2050 decarbonization roadmap for the aviation sector by quantifying how SLCP mitigation can complement greenhouse gas (GHG) strategies to align aviation with the Paris Agreement. The report concludes that in the Full Breakthrough scenario, which blends maximum GHG and SLCP mitigation, additional aviation warming could be cut by more than 90% below the Historical Trends scenario and limits aviation’s share of additional contribution to the remaining 1.7 °C budget to 2%.